Cyclonic storm Arnab is forecast to lose strength and weaken into a depression on October 29, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday, offering the first clear sign that the system is beginning to taper after days of intense rain, wind and coastal disruption across eastern India. But the downgrade in intensity does not immediately end the threat. The storm's outer bands continue to dump heavy rain over large parts of southern Odisha, while Andhra Pradesh is still counting the cost of flooding, wind damage and fatalities linked to the weather system.
Rainfall Toll Mounts
In Odisha, officials said at least 17 districts in the southern belt have been affected by heavy rainfall associated with Cyclone Arnab, with low-lying areas reporting waterlogging, road disruptions and localized damage to crops and homes. The impact has been especially pronounced in districts already vulnerable to seasonal flooding, where drainage systems are often overwhelmed by sustained downpours. While the cyclone's core is weakening, the residual rain threat remains significant for communities in the storm's path.
The IMD's forecast that Arnab will weaken into a depression is important for disaster managers because it signals a gradual reduction in wind intensity and coastal surge risk. However, meteorologists and emergency officials typically caution that the most damaging phase of a cyclone is not always limited to its peak classification. Even as a system weakens, it can continue to trigger intense rainfall, flash flooding and landslides, particularly in hilly or saturated terrain. That is the immediate concern across Odisha, where district administrations are monitoring vulnerable blocks and coordinating relief operations.
Andhra Counts The Cost
Andhra Pradesh has reported five deaths in connection with the storm, a grim reminder that cyclonic systems often exact their heaviest toll through secondary hazards rather than direct wind impact alone. The fatalities underscore the continuing vulnerability of coastal and inland communities to collapsing structures, uprooted trees, electrocution, road accidents and flood-related incidents during severe weather.
Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has announced relief measures in response to the damage, directing the administration to accelerate assistance for affected families and ensure that emergency support reaches impacted areas. The state government's response is likely to focus on immediate compensation, restoration of essential services and damage assessment, particularly in districts where rainfall has disrupted transport, power supply and local livelihoods. For a state still balancing disaster response with infrastructure recovery, the speed of relief delivery will be closely watched.
The twin developments in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh highlight the uneven but interconnected nature of cyclone impact along India's east coast. Even when a storm weakens over land, its rain shield can continue to affect multiple states and districts far from the point of landfall or peak intensity. This is why state administrations, the IMD and disaster response agencies typically maintain alerts until the system fully dissipates.
Relief And Recovery
The broader policy challenge now shifts from emergency warning to recovery management. In Odisha, district authorities must assess crop losses, road damage and the condition of embankments, schools and health facilities after prolonged rainfall. In Andhra Pradesh, the immediate priorities include verifying the death toll, supporting bereaved families, clearing debris and restoring electricity and communications in affected pockets.
The IMD's latest assessment suggests that the worst of Arnab's wind-driven threat may be passing, but the monsoon-linked hazards it has unleashed are still active. For residents in the affected districts, the next 24 to 48 hours remain critical, especially where rivers and drainage channels are already swollen. The situation also serves as a reminder of the growing importance of early warning systems, district-level preparedness and rapid relief deployment in a country where cyclones increasingly test both governance capacity and local resilience.
As Arnab weakens into a depression, attention will now turn to the scale of the damage and the pace of rehabilitation. For the affected families in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh, the storm's official downgrade will matter less than the speed with which relief, compensation and restoration reach their doorsteps.