Jewellers are entering the Dhanteras season with cautious optimism, betting that a recent fall in gold prices will revive buying interest and lift sales of coins, bars and lightweight jewellery. Industry stakeholders say the festival, which traditionally marks one of the strongest buying periods for precious metals in India, is likely to benefit from a combination of lower price points, investment demand and the enduring cultural habit of purchasing gold for auspicious occasions.
Price Relief Effect
The expected improvement in demand comes after a period of elevated gold prices that had made many consumers defer purchases or reduce ticket sizes. Retailers say even a modest correction can have an outsized effect during Dhanteras, when buyers often act on sentiment as much as on budget. For households that had been waiting for a softer entry point, the recent decline is seen as an opportunity to buy before prices move again.
Industry participants note that the festival demand is not driven solely by jewellery for personal adornment. Coins and bars are expected to account for a larger share of sales this year, reflecting a preference among consumers for products that combine gifting value with investment appeal. In a volatile macroeconomic environment, gold continues to be viewed as a store of value, and that perception tends to strengthen during periods of uncertainty.
Investment Demand Dominates
The shift toward coins and bars also signals a more cautious consumer mindset. Buyers who may have previously opted for heavier ornaments are increasingly choosing smaller, more liquid products that can be easily gifted or retained as savings. Jewellers say this trend has been reinforced by price sensitivity, as well as by the growing popularity of gold as a financial asset rather than only a ceremonial purchase.
Dhanteras, which falls at the start of the Diwali shopping season, has long been associated with the purchase of precious metals, utensils and other valuables considered auspicious. But in recent years, the composition of demand has evolved. Rising prices have encouraged many consumers to trade down to lighter jewellery, while a larger share of first-time or budget-conscious buyers has moved toward coins and bars. That pattern is expected to continue this year, especially if prices remain near recent lower levels.
Retailers are also watching for the impact of broader economic conditions on festive spending. Household budgets remain under pressure from inflation in other categories, and consumers are likely to remain selective. Even so, gold retains a unique position in Indian households because it serves multiple purposes at once: a festive purchase, a gift, a savings instrument and, for many families, a hedge against uncertainty.
Festive Sentiment Holds
Despite the price volatility that has characterised the bullion market, jewellers say the emotional and cultural pull of Dhanteras should support footfall and conversion rates. The festival is one of the few occasions when consumers are willing to make purchases regardless of short-term market movements, and retailers are preparing for a concentrated buying window in which timing matters as much as price.
Analysts say the key question is not whether gold demand will rise, but how it will be distributed across product categories. If prices stay subdued through the festival, the market could see stronger volumes in coins and bars, with jewellery demand improving more gradually. If prices rebound sharply, buyers may rush to lock in purchases, but average ticket sizes could remain restrained.
For the bullion trade, the current setup is broadly favourable. Lower prices improve affordability, while the festival calendar provides a natural trigger for demand. The result is a market where sentiment, tradition and investment logic are aligned, even if consumers remain selective about what they buy.
As Dhanteras approaches, jewellers are positioning themselves for a season in which gold's dual identity as both adornment and asset is likely to shape sales. The expectation across the trade is clear: a softer price environment should help unlock deferred demand, with coins and bars leading the way.