ICICI Bank Global Markets

India’s BoP Turns Positive, but Oil Costs and Trade Gap Cap Upside: ICICI Bank

India’s balance of payments is moving back into positive territory, but the improvement is likely to fall short of earlier expectations as higher oil import costs and a widening non-oil, non-gold trade deficit continue to pressure the external account, according to ICICI Bank Global Markets. The report suggests that while the country’s external buffers remain intact, the pace of recovery is being constrained by persistent import demand and a less supportive trade backdrop.